India wheat Export Ban
India has defended its decision to ban wheat exports after criticism could make it even worse the situation of world food supply after the Ukrainian war. If everyone starts setting export restrictions ... that could exacerbate this problem," Germany The Minister of Food and Agriculture Cem Ozdemir said after the ban was announced in May. But India's Minister of Trade, Piyush Goyal, says the ban on imports should not affect the rest of the world markets because it is not a major producer of wheat.
Global wheat price rise
Now what has been the impact of India’s migration? Rising wheat prices worldwide India's ban was announced on May 13, after hot weather affected wheat yield, sending local prices up. Although India is not a major producer of wheat, the movement has not stabilized global markets with The Chicago benchmark index index rises by about 6%. Prices for some major wheat varieties rose in just a few days, from 17 to 18. May.
Wheat prices had risen throughout March and April following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as it had prices for other foods. The chaos created by the war means that millions of tons of wheat could not leave Ukraine, which is one of the best places in the world.
Kelly Goughary, of the agricultural data research team Gro Intelligence, describes India the ban has led to further inflation because “international consumers have relied on their own resources India after imports from the Black Sea region declined ".
Who is affected by the Indian ban?
India is the second largest producer of wheat in the world, but it produces less than 1% of wheat trade worldwide. It saves a lot to provide food for the poor. But just before announcing the ban, India aimed to boost exports by setting a record 10 million tons of wheat this year - compared to just 2 million last year. It supplied goods to new markets in Asia and Africa, and even after the ban, several countries that say they have linked to India to continue exporting. India says some countries will still receive wheat exports, and that it "will continue to help neighbors in times of need. "
Its main markets are Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka - as well as the United Arab Emirates Emirates (UAE). In 2019-2020, Sri Lanka and the UAE export more than 50% of their wheat to India, according to at the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), and Nepal contributed more than 90%. It is not yet clear whether these countries will still receive Indian wheat under existing contracts, or will receive offers under future deals.
However, Egypt says the government will continue to buy Indian wheat. It is one of his the largest importers of wheat in the world. The International Monetary Fund has asked India to reconsider its export ban, it said can play an important role in helping alleviate the current problem of wheat supply to those countries most affected by the Ukrainian war.
Bad weather and fertilizer prices Apart from the Ukrainian war, the climate has also affected some of the larger wheat. export countries. “Drought, floods and heat waves threaten crops for some major producers [in the US, Canada and France]
Global wheat production
Global wheat production for the 2022-23 period will be very low for four years, as well as global Wheat stocks are projected to decline sharply in six years, according to the US government report. Gro Intelligence also revealed that fertilizer prices had tripled in the past year. risking a “significant” decline in crop yields this year.
It estimates that this - and other factors - mean that global wheat stocks have declined their lowest rate since the 2008 financial crisis. China - the world's largest producer of wheat with a large population - said in March that it was its own The winter harvest could be "the worst in history" due to heavy rains in 2021. There is still uncertainty about the actual state of the harvest, and whether it will be so or not badly affected.
But in that case, China may want to buy in world markets to build its stocks, even further global goods and inflation.